Week of September 14–21, 2026 · Tompkins + 6 Contiguous Counties
The County Scoreboard
| Chemung | 37 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 5 |
| Tompkins | 36 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 3 |
| Cayuga | 30 | 24 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 7 | 3 |
| Seneca | 16 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 0 |
| Cortland | 12 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 1 |
| Schuyler | 12 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Tioga | 6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| REGION | 149 | 115 | 24 | 44 | 68 | 44 | 14 |
Absorption: new listings per contract (lower = tighter)
| Cortland | 0.9 : 1 | 18 | 6.6% |
| Seneca | 1.5 : 1 | 11 (fastest) | 2.9%(shallowest) |
| Cayuga | 1.4 : 1 | 28 | 6.1% |
| Schuyler | 3.0 : 1 | 22 | 4.4% |
| Tioga | 3.0 : 1 | 56 (slowest) | 9.8%(deepest) |
| Tompkins | 4.0 : 1 | 17 | 7.6% |
| Chemung | 4.6 : 1 | 18 | 8.0% |
| Region | 2.2 : 1 | 18 | 7.0% |
Week Over Week vs. Sept 7–14
| County | New | Δ | Cuts | Δ | Contracts | Δ | Exp+Wd | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tompkins | 33 → 36 | +3 | 30 → 27 | −3 | 11 → 9 | −2 | 37 → 13 | −24 |
| Cayuga | 27 → 30 | +3 | 35 → 24 | −11 | 20 → 21 | +1 | 7 → 7 | 0 |
| Chemung | 25 → 37 | +12 | 30 → 29 | −1 | 16 → 8 | −8 | 11 → 15 | +4 |
| Seneca | 7 → 16 | +9 | 4 → 3 | −1 | 9 → 11 | +2 | 3 → 2 | −1 |
| Cortland | 7 → 12 | +5 | 9 → 13 | +4 | 10 → 13 | +3 | 4 → 2 | −2 |
| Schuyler | 6 → 12 | +6 | 2 → 11 | +9 | 7 → 4 | −3 | 3 → 1 | −2 |
| Tioga | 10 → 6 | −4 | 6 → 8 | +2 | 1 → 2 | +1 | 2 → 4 | +2 |
| Region | 115 → 149 | +34 | 116 → 115 | −1 | 74 → 68 | −6 | 67 → 44 | −23 |
One caution on that Tompkins expired drop: last week’s 37 was inflated by a single builder’s batch of 28 Lansing building lots that all expired the same day at 543 DOM. Strip that artifact and Tompkins ran roughly 9 real expireds last week versus 13 this week— so Tompkins expireds actually rose, they didn’t collapse.
The Story Behind the Numbers
Supply is surging; demand isn’t keeping pace
New listings jumped +30% region-wide (115 → 149) while contracts fell (74 → 68).
That’s a late-September inventory wave hitting a demand pool that’s already thinning.
Five of seven counties posted more new listings than the week prior, led by Chemung (+12) and Seneca (+9).
Chemung and Tompkins are this week’s coolest markets
- Chemung is the weakest on every axis: 37 new listings against just 8 contracts, 29 price cuts averaging 8.0%, and 15 expired/withdrawn— the most in the region.
- Tompkins is the more surprising one: 36 new listings, 27 price cuts, and only 9 contracts — a 4-to-1 imbalance. Notably, 9 Tompkins listings hit P-Pending status this week; Average Tompkins cut was 7.6%, above the regional 7.0%.
Cortland and Seneca are the tight spots
- Cortland absorbed more than it added: 13 contracts against 12 new listings, only 2 expireds, and shallow cuts. Cortland, Cortlandville, Homer, Truxton and Preble all logged contracts.
- Seneca is the cleanest market in the region — 16 new listings, only 3 price cuts (avg just 2.9%), 11 contracts, median 11 DOM to contract, and 2 expireds. Seneca Falls, Waterloo, Romulus, Varick and Ovid all moved.
- Cayuga put up the most contracts (21) but works slower — median 28 DOM.
Tioga is thin and deeply discounted
Only 6 new listings and 2 contracts, but 8 price cuts averaging 9.8% — the deepest discounts in the region for the second straight week. The standout: 367 Andersen Hill Rd, Richford, cut from $295,000 to $225,000 (−23.7%) at 122 DOM.
Who’s mispriced
Deepest cuts, weighted toward long days on market — these are sellers who priced to the 2024 market and are now chasing it down:
| 508 Franklin St, Elmira-City | Chemung | $105,000 → $60,000 | −42.9% | 180 |
| 507 Goss St, Ithaca-Town | Tompkins | $42,000 → $29,900 | −28.8% | 279 |
| 367 Andersen Hill Rd, Richford | Tioga | $295,000 → $225,000 | −23.7% | 122 |
| 119 Third St, Ithaca-City (MUL) | Tompkins | $1,500,000 → $1,200,000 | −20.0% / −$300K | 224 |
| 187 Genesee St, Auburn (COM) | Cayuga | $249,900 → $199,999 | −20.0% | 833 |
| 361 Troy Rd, Danby (lot) | Tompkins | $59,900 → $49,900 | −16.7% | 138 |
| 121 Elm St, Ithaca-City (MUL) | Tompkins | $265,000 → $225,000 | −15.1% | 45 |
| 106 E 4th St, Dix (COM) | Schuyler | $3,999,000 → $3,499,999 | −$499,001 | 329 |
| 4545 Cosmos Hill Rd, Cortland | Cortland | $1,249,000 → $1,125,000 | −9.9% / −$124K | 70 |
| 399 Grant Avenue Rd, Sennett | Cayuga | $1,400,000 → $1,300,000 | −$100,000 | 193 |
| 64 Hungerford Rd, Dryden | Tompkins | $895,000 → $850,000 | −5.0% | 27 |
Data-quality note: several of these are dual-listed (399 Grant Avenue Rd appears as both COM and RES; 189 Michigan Hollow Rd, Spencer as both RES and MUL; 8939 Oakland St, Brutus as both COM and APT).
Where demand is actually moving
Well-priced inventory is still transacting fast, including at the top of the market:
- 59 Hickory Cir, Dryden — $739,000, under contract in 3 days (Tompkins)
- 409 W Buffalo St, Ithaca-City — $555,000, under contract in 5 days (Tompkins)
- 47 Metcalf Dr, Auburn — $345,000 in 3 days (Cayuga)
- 3145 Dolphsburg Rd, Hector — $188,000 in 0 days (Schuyler)
- 14 Nixon Ave, Homer — $210,000 in 3 days (Cortland)
- 125 Center St, Barton — $285,000 in 3 days (Tioga)
- 10429 State Route 38, Conquest — $139,900 in 1 day (Cayuga)
>>This is the interesting story: Tompkins put up the region’s worst absorption ratio and its two fastest high-dollar contracts in the same week. The constraint isn’t the price band — it’s the price.
In the Town of Ithaca last week, seven listings expired without selling — nearly one in five of every expired listing across our entire seven-county region — and every single one was priced at $279,900 or above. In that same week, a $739,000 home in Dryden went under contract in three days and a $555,000 home in the City of Ithaca went in five. Tompkins County took in 36 new listings and produced only 9 contracts. Buyers at the upper end of the Ithaca market are still here and still fast — they’re just refusing to bid on anything priced on last year’s comps. If your home has been sitting past 30 days, the issue is almost never exposure. It’s the number.
Source:NYS Matrix MLS, Cross-Property Market Watch, rolling 7-day hot sheet (all statuses, all property types). Facts verified in MLS: – 7 of 39 regional expireds (18%) were in the Town of Ithaca: 118 Simsbury Dr ($615,000), 311 Winthrop Dr ($595,000), 104 Burleigh Dr ($497,500), 00 Hillcrest Dr ($450,000 lot), 134 Poole Rd ($395,000), 73 Lois Ln ($279,900, dual-listed RES + CND). – That’s 6 unique properties after removing the dual-listed pair — worth saying plainly if a client checks. – Tompkins: 36 new listings, 9 contracts, 27 price cuts averaging 7.6%. – Fast upper-bracket contracts: 59 Hickory Cir, Dryden ($739,000, 3 DOM); 409 W Buffalo St, Ithaca-City ($555,000, 5 DOM).
Data Provenance & Limitations
- Pulled from NYS Matrix MLS Cross-Property Market Watch on the rolling 7 Day period with the seven-county filter, Hotsheet display format, all property types (RES, MUL, APT, CND, LOT, COM, RNT).
- Matrix’s 7-day window is rolling, not calendar-fixed, and grids were captured across Sept 21–23. A re-pull on Sept 23 returned 128 new listings versus the 149 captured here, as the oldest days rolled off. Treat counts as directional and as-of capture, not as a frozen Sept 14–21 audit.
- Pending vs. Under Contract: Matrix splits these into P-Pending and U-Do Not Show. They’re reported separately above and combined into “Contracts” for absorption math.
- Price-cut percentages derive from the Chng Info field’s old→new price pair; 109 of 115 price-decrease records carried a parseable pair. Six did not and are excluded from the average-cut figures but counted in the totals.
- Commercial and rental records are included in county totals. Where a headline number is driven by a COM or RNT listing it’s labeled inline.
- Town-to-county mapping covered all 149/115/24/44/39 records with zero unmapped towns.
- Expired + Withdrawn combines X-Expired (39) and W-Withdrawn (5).
