2018–2025 Market Trend Report (Single-family homes, non-waterfront)

Over the past 7 years

the Tompkins County housing market has undergone a major transformation driven by limited housing supply, strong local demand, and pandemic-era migration.

Even after interest rates doubled in 2023, prices continued climbing due to a shortage of available homes.

The result: fewer homes selling — but at higher prices.

Year	# Sales	Avg Close Price	Median Close Price	Avg SP/SqFt	Avg SP/LP Ratio	Median DOM
2018	695	$243,282	$220,000	$131.23	97%	33
2019	808	$259,028	$227,000	$134.05	97%	40
2020	784	$278,153	$250,000	$141.20	97%	18
2021	865	$313,754	$275,000	$157.59	102%	8
2022	853	$338,117	$312,000	$172.98	103%	9
2023	689	$347,006	$312,000	$182.29	102%	9
2024	578	$377,743	$340,500	$195.19	102%	8
2025	634	$425,392	$376,750	$206.87	100%	10

The typical Tompkins County Home (2025)

• 3 Bedrooms

• 2 Bathrooms

• 1,871 sq ft

• $376,750 median sale price

• $204 per sq ft

• 10 days on market

What the Data Shows: Prices have risen 75% from 2018 to 2025

Average Sale Price $243,000 → $425,000

• Average closing prices rose every single year — (total +75% from 2018 to 2025) with Compound Annual Growth ≈ 8.3%.
• an 8%+ CAGR over 7–8 years is considered very strong and healthy appreciation — especially since it held up through higher interest rates post-2022 without reversing.
• Price per square foot (SP/SqFt) tracked the same pattern, rising from $131 to ~$207.
• Average home size stayed remarkably stable (1,900–2,065 sq ft), so the gains are true appreciation, not driven by larger homes.

Home Sales: 865 sales in 2021 → 578 sales in 2024

Sales peaked during the 2021–2022 boom (853–865 ), then declined sharply through 2024 with a modest recovery in 2025

Recent 3-year average ≈ 634 sales per year.

This probably is largely due to owners holding onto ultra-low mortgage rates from 2020-2022. i.e. the “golden handcuffs” phenomenon

So, there simply aren’t enough homes for sale. The combination of rate lock-in, chronically low new listings, and post-boom normalization created a supply crunch that overpowered everything else.

This is why prices kept climbing even as volume fell — classic economics: steady demand + crushed supply = higher prices, fewer transactions.

What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

This is a Strong, Appreciating, now-Balanced market. Prices have compounded at roughly 8.3% annually for eight straight years.

The 2025 data shows the highest average and median closing prices on record, with price-per-square-foot still climbing.

The return of SP/LP to 1.00 and persistently low days on market indicate that well-priced, properly marketed homes still sell quickly, but buyers are no longer forced to bid significantly over list.

Volume has stabilized after the pandemic spike and subsequent dip — the market is liquid but not overheated.

Overall, this reflects a healthy, demand-driven environment supported by limited inventory and steady local economic drivers.

2026-2027 Market Outlook

Projection (based on these datasets):

• Average close price: $445,000 – $460,000

• Median close price: $395,000 – $410,000

• Sales volume: Stable at 620 – 680 transactions (continuation of the recent 3-year average with slight rebound momentum)

• SP/LP ratio: ≈ 1.00 (balanced, occasional slight over-list on premium properties)

• Median DOM: 8 – 15 days (still quick sales for well-presented homes)

• Price per square foot: $212 – $225

What to Expect

Sellers who price realistically and market effectively will continue to see fast closings; buyers will have slightly more negotiating power than 2022–2024 but will still face low, but starting to rise, inventory. The long-term trend of ~8% annual growth remains intact unless supply increases dramatically.

This market has proven remarkably resilient over the full 2018–2025 period — I see no reason in the data for a dramatic reversal in 2026-27.

Expect another year of solid price appreciation with a balanced but still semi-competitive environment.