I recently dug into… about seven years of regional real estate data across the Finger Lakes — not just one county and not just lakefront properties.
This dataset includes residential homes, duplexes, and waterfront properties across fourteen counties. And when you look at the numbers together, a really clear story starts to emerge.
| Year | Median List Price | Median Sale Price | # Sales | Avg SP/LP Ratio | Median DOM |
| 2018 | $359,900 | $312,500 | 741 | 96% | 43 |
| 2019 | $399,000 | $329,500 | 688 | 95% | 40 |
| 2020 | $419,000 | $396,000 | 642 | 96% | 18 |
| 2021 | $495,000 | $460,000 | 589 | 100% | 9 |
| 2022 | $522,400 | $508,000 | 475 | 102% | 9 |
| 2023 | $489,450 | $475,000 | 501 | 100% | 9 |
| 2024 | $525,000 | $500,000 | 584 | 100% | 12 |
| 2025 | $574,500 | $554,625 | 600 | 99% | 12 |
Prices are way up
Back in 2018, the median sale price across this regional market was about: $312,500.
By 2025 that number had climbed to: $554,625.
That’s roughly 77% appreciation in seven years.
Anyone with eyes that was paying attention could tell you this….but price alone does tell the full story.
Homes sell much faster & at full price
Before the pandemic, homes typically took about 40 to 43 days to sell.
Today the median is closer to 12 days.
That means homes are still selling about three times faster than they used to.
So even with higher mortgage rates, buyers are still absorbing inventory quickly.
Before 2020, homes typically sold for somewhere around 93–97% of the asking price.
Today most months land right around 98–100% of list price.
That means the market never truly collapsed when rates rose. It simply reset to a tighter equilibrium.
Now here’s a statistic that almost nobody looks at —> The total dollar volume flowing into the market.
This measures how much money buyers are actually investing in the region each year. Here’s what that looks like:
| Year | Sales Volume |
| 2018 | $286M |
| 2019 | $276M |
| 2020 | $331M |
| 2021 | $356M |
| 2022 | $344M |
| 2023 | $321M |
| 2024 | $375M |
| 2025 | $451M |
Even though the number of homes sold fell during the pandemic years, the amount of money flowing into the market increased dramatically.
2025 produced the highest transaction volume in the dataset. That tells us something important. The average transaction size is getting bigger. That’s a strong signal of regional economic confidence and demand.
The Hidden Pattern….
Inventory Compression Cycle
Look at the Months of Inventory numbers over time.
Pre-Pandemic Inventory (2018–2019)
Typical months of inventory: 9 – 23 months
With occasional spikes as high as: 34 months & 48 months
That’s a very loose market.
Plenty of listings, buyers negotiating heavily, homes sitting longer.
Pandemic Shock (2020–2022)
Suddenly inventory collapses.
By mid-2020: 7 – 9 months
And it basically stays there through 2022.
That’s a 60–70% supply contraction.
This is why prices accelerated so fast.
Now here’s the interesting part…
Post-Rate Spike Market (2023–2025)
You would normally expect inventory to rebound after mortgage rates doubled.
But it didn’t.
Instead it stabilized around:
8 – 13 months
Which is still dramatically lower than the pre-2020 market.
The baseline supply level of the region permanently shifted downward.
In simple terms:
Old market supply level ≈ 15–20 months
New market supply level ≈ 8–12 months
That’s a massive structural tightening.
The Real Signal
The key metric isn’t just prices. It’s this: Inventory floor dropped permanently. And markets with structurally lower inventory tend to see long-term price support.
Most Northeast Markets are dealing with:
• population decline
• economic stagnation
• excess housing stock
The Finger Lakes is experiencing the opposite. It has:
• lifestyle demand
• limited housing supply
• stable regional institutions (universities, healthcare, agriculture)
That combination tends to produce slow, steady appreciation cycles rather than boom-bust patterns. And Here’s what’s hidden in the data….
The Wealth Migration Curve
Look at these two metrics side-by-side: At first glance, nothing jumps out. But now calculate average sale price implied by total volume.
| Year | Sales | Dollar Volume |
| 2018 | 741 | $286M |
| 2019 | 688 | $276M |
| 2020 | 642 | $331M |
| 2021 | 589 | $356M |
| 2022 | 475 | $343M |
| 2023 | 501 | $321M |
| 2024 | 584 | $375M |
| 2025 | 600 | $451M |
Now the pattern becomes obvious. The capital per transaction has nearly doubled. $387K → $753K. That’s roughly 94% growth in seven years.
| Year | Avg Sale Value |
| 2018 | ~$387K |
| 2019 | ~$401K |
| 2020 | ~$515K |
| 2021 | ~$605K |
| 2022 | ~$723K |
| 2023 | ~$641K |
| 2024 | ~$641K |
| 2025 | ~$753K |
This pattern typically appears when buyers from wealthier markets enter a region. They bring higher purchasing power and that pushes:
• median prices up • average transaction values up • overall capital inflow up
Even if the number of homes sold doesn’t increase much.
What this means in the Finger Lakes
The dataset shows exactly that dynamic.
Between 2018 and 2025: Sales dropped slightly: 741 → 600
But total capital flowing into the market rose dramatically: $286M → $451M
That’s about a 57% increase in capital inflow.
The Finger Lakes housing market is likely attracting buyers with deeper pockets than the historical local buyer pool.
Example: • urban migration buyers • second-home buyers • retirement buyers
• remote-work professionals. • investors
These buyers tend to be less sensitive to local wage levels. Which is why prices can rise faster than local incomes.
This Matters for Future Prices
Markets experiencing wealth migration often behave differently than purely local housing markets. They typically see:
• higher long-term price growth
• stronger price resilience
• increasing luxury or lifestyle demand
• rising median transaction values
That doesn’t mean prices go straight up forever. But it often means the market develops a higher long-term price baseline.
The Big Picture
The data (backed with real world experience) shows three powerful forces happening simultaneously:
1️⃣ Supply compression – Inventory levels fell dramatically.
2️⃣ Faster market speed – Days to sell dropped from 43 → 12.
3️⃣ Wealth migration – Capital per transaction nearly doubled.
Together, those three factors explain why the Finger Lakes housing market has remained strong even in a higher interest rate environment.
